Thought your hot girl summer was over? Well, it turns out your hot girl winter is just heating up. Last year, Australia sweated through its warmest winter on record, followed by its third-warmest summer, with temperatures in Carnarvon, WA hitting a scorching 49.9 degrees.
And the wild weather rollercoaster continues, as the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has given its verdict on what’s in store for Aussies this winter. Unfortunately, the details are pretty concerning.
What’s the temperature forecast for winter?
According to the BOM’s weather forecasters, the whole country is heading into what could be the warmest winter ever recorded. Days and nights are highly likely to be noticeably warmer than average, with a very strong chance that both the median maximum and minimum temperatures will be “unusually warm”.
For the majority of NSW, QLD, TAS and VIC, plus southern parts of SA and WA, it’s predicted that temperatures are four times more likely to be in the top 20 per cent of the hottest recorded between June and August.
What’s the rainfall forecast for winter?
As for whether we’ll be getting good use out of our umbrellas this winter, that’s still hard to say. Forecasters have predicted rainfall that’s “typical” for the June to August period for most of the east coast, but an increased chance of above-average rainfall in parts of the west, central southern areas of the mainland and Queensland’s North Tropical Coast.
Earlier this year, the BOM declared that Australia is under La Niña watch due to “early signs that an event might form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024”. If La Niña does develop – currently a 50-50 chance – it could mean a wetter spring and summer across most of Australia. This isn’t great news for snow lovers, as the extra precipitation from warmer La Niña temperatures would likely come in the form of rain, not snow.
What’s the snow forecast for winter?
Predicting snowfall in Australia is a bit of a wild card, with yearly averages easily swayed by single, short weather events. For the first weekend of winter, Snowatch forecasts some light snowfall up high on Perisher’s Front Valley. However, it’s not expected to reach low enough to Thredbo’s Friday Flat area or the man-made snow heaps at Mt. Buller and Baw Baw.
Based on this trend, Snowatch predicts that the opening weekend might see some lifts operating on man-made terrain at Perisher (Front Valley), Mt.Buller (Bourke St) and possibly Friday Flat, with some light snow play at Baw Baw. This is pretty consistent with previous years, where decent snow in early June is quite rare and heavier snowfall is expected for the later winter months.
What’s causing Australia’s warm weather forecasts?
We’re all for keeping that hot girl summer in Australia going, but with weather forecasters pointing to greenhouse gas emissions as the reason for this change in climate, that’s definitely not good news. In its climate outlook summary, the BOM pointed to global sea surface temperatures being the warmest on record between April 2023 and April 2024, noting that Australia’s warming climate has caused an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.
On the plus side, Aussies will hopefully be able to save a little bit of extra cash on their heating bills – and help reduce harmful greenhouse gas emissions in the process. To find out more about the Australian weather climate, go to the Bureau of Meteorology website.
