The federal government is set to unveil a major new migration strategy on Monday that aims to dramatically cut Australia’s intake.
Key points:
- Net overseas migration is estimated to be about 500,000 over the year to September
- As part of the new strategy, the intake of foreign students entering low-quality courses will be cut
- Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says migration levels will be “brought to a sustainable level”
Temporary migration has jumped sharply over the past year — largely driven by foreign students — leading to a record intake. The Net Overseas Migration is expected to have hit about 500,000 over the year to September.
This was previously described as a post-COVID 19 influx of returning foreign students, but the ABC understands the government believes this is more than a one-off surge.
Rather, it is seen as part of a broader international trend, involving middle-income families in India, South-East Asia and Latin America seeking better opportunities in high-income countries including Australia, Canada, the US and UK.
As part of the new migration strategy — which has already been signed off by cabinet and follows months of consultation with the higher education sector, business groups and other stakeholders — steps will be taken to cut the intake of foreign students entering low-quality courses.
The ABC understands the government will not cap the number of foreign students allowed in but will crack down on low-quality training providers and limit opportunities for student visas to be used as a backdoor for low-skilled workers to stay in Australia.
The new strategy will also involve new efforts to retain the best-performing students in Australia and new pathways to attract more high-skilled permanent migrants.
The changes follow a review, published in April, into the migration system by Martin Parkinson — the former secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet — which found the visa system was “broken”.
Next week will also see the release of updated migration figures, with expectations they will show Australia’s annual migration intake stood at about 500,000.
In September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed net overseas migration was 454,400 in the year to March 31.
The Federal Government is preparing to announce its long-awaited migration strategy aimed at reducing arrivals, to ease pressures on housing, infrastructure and the cost of living.
Labor’s plan is expected to focus on international students, targeting those rorting the system.
“The new Migration Strategy we’ll announce this week will bring migration back to sustainable levels,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Saturday.
That will bring numbers down from a predicted peak of more than half a million people in the last 12 months – the highest in history – which is putting pressure on infrastructure, housing and the cost of living.
“The horse has already bolted, not only can he not catch it, he cant even find it,” Shadow Immigration Minister Dan Tehan said.
Pre-pandemic net overseas migration boosted the population by 239,600 in 2018-19.
Mid-pandemic in 2019-20 those numbers slowed to 194,400, then reversed to -88,800 in 2020-21 due to border closures.
Post-pandemic there was a catch-up – in 2021-22 an increase of 170,900, followed by an additional 454,400 in March 2023 – but one that’s far exceeded expectations.
“The numbers are unprecedented, we’ve never have net migration at these sorts of levels,” Abul Rizvi, former Immigration Department Deputy Secretary said.
The majority here to learn, Rizvi said, adding: “60 per cent of the net migration is students”.
“In some cases, the system has been abused,” the Prime Minister said.
Labor’s strategy is set to include a further crackdown on dodgy education providers with enhanced English speaking requirements for foreign students and the scrapping of student visas for some low-end short courses, outside the university sector.
“We’ve got to make sure that our population is sustainable,” Albanese added.
And while the Prime Minister stopped short of giving ‘sustainable’ an exact number, his government’s intergenerational report assumed a figure of 235,000 people per year and 9News understands his new strategy will aim for the same.
“Whenever net migrations gets to about 300,000, problems start to occur,” Rizvi said.
“Fundamentally, no one’s ready for 300,000, and [the system] can’t cope.”
“You’ve got a rental crisis, you’ve got a housing crisis, people can’t see the GP, it’s a mess of the government’s making,” Tehan said.
