Get ready for more frequent heatwaves and bushfires, but fewer cyclones – that’s the message from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in its newly released long-range forecast.
October to April is the peak time for severe weather in Australia including heatwaves, bushfires, tropical cyclones, severe thunderstorms and floods.
Three years of La Niña have given way to an El Niño, bringing with it below-average rainfall and warmer temperatures across Australia’s east coast.
At the same time, there are strong indications of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event for the first time in four years, which will reduce the amount of rain and moist air coming to Australia from the north-west and increasing temperatures over parts of the country.
When an El Niño and positive IOD occur at the same time, their drying effect is typically stronger and more widespread across Australia.
Senior Meteorologist Sarah Scully said overall Australians can prepare for dry and warm conditions with an increased risk of heatwaves and bushfires this spring and summer.
“Daytime and night-time temperatures have an increased chance of being unusually warm for October to February. Warm nights after hot days means little relief from heat and can lead to heat stress,” Scully said.
“There is always a risk of dangerous and destructive fires in Australia at this time of year.
“Grass growth due to above average rainfall in the past two to three years is contributing to an increased fire risk.”
Numerous temperature records have already been broken across the east coast of Australia, with weeks of record heat in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria sparking an early start to what is predicted to be a horror bushfire season.
In a possible silver lining for tropical regions, the risk from cyclones is reduced during an El Niño, with the BoM predicting Australia may make it through to the New Year before its first cyclone makes landfall.
Scully said the start of the Australian summer monsoon is typically later than average during El Nino and positive IOD years.
“The average date is the last week in December and this season it’s more likely to be in the first or second week of January,” she said.
(9 NEWS)
