Australia Meteorologist Bradlyn Oakes has warned Australia could experience above-average heat, bushfires and droughts between October and April as the nation prepares for El Nino.
Australia typically experiences its most dangerous weather conditions in the spring and summer months, but the aligning of two major climate drivers – a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and an El Nino in the Pacific – for the first time in eight years should ensure the next three to six months is significantly drier than normal across most of the country.
Historically, positive IOD events are responsible for most of Australia’s hottest springs, while El Nino tips the scales in favour of hot springs and summers.
In short, Australia needs to prepare itself for hot, dry weather over the next seven months, a far cry from the record-breaking rainfall and devastating floods of the past few years.
Here is what you can expect in the months ahead, and when you are likely to see the greatest risk of heatwaves, bushfires, thunderstorms and cyclones in your part of the country.
As we flip the switch to El Nino and a positive IOD in a warming world, everything is pointing towards hotter conditions ahead this severe weather season.
Spring and summer temperatures across the country are likely to be within the top three in terms of records going back to 1910, with a significant chance to become number one.
And as we make our way through the severe weather season, Australia’s 63-year-old national temperature record of 50.7C is likely to finally be broken.
Multiple locations could soar above that daily maximum temperature as heat takes hold over the coming months.
Northern, central and eastern Australia, in particular, are looking at a 90 per cent chance of exceeding median temperatures through severe weather season.
When we look at our capitals, Sydney, Brisbane and Darwin are most likely to exceed their normal temperatures.
When it comes to heatwaves, we define that as three consecutive days of daytime and nighttime temperatures significantly above average for a location.
Even in September, a rare heatwave warning was issued by the Bureau of Meteorology for areas of southern NSW.
It’s just a taste of what is potentially to come.
During this El Nino, we can expect a greater risk of late spring/early summer heatwaves in central, northern and eastern Australia, but less of a chance in the south.
Since we are also in a positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase, we could see more heatwaves early in the season.
During the last positive IOD in 2019 we saw the hottest and driest year on record.
(SKY NEWS)
